A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
