War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".